The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire patterns and subsequent impacts to human communities. The relative influence of climate versus land use on fires and their impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given the substantial geographical variability in fire-prone places like California. We developed a modeling framework to compare the importance of climatic and human variables for explaining fire patterns and structure loss for three diverse California landscapes, then projected future large fire and structure loss probability under two different climate (hot-dry or warm-wet) and two different land use (rural or urban residential growth) scenarios. The relative importance of climate and housing pattern varied across regions and according to fire size or whether the model was for large fires or structure loss. The differing strengths of these relationships, in addition to differences in the nature and magnitude of projected climate or land use change, dictated the extent to which large fires or structure loss were projected to change in the future. Despite this variability, housing and human infrastructure were consistently more responsible for explaining fire ignitions and structure loss probability, whereas climate, topography, and fuel variables were more important for explaining large fire patterns. For all study areas, most structure loss occurred in areas with low housing density (from 0.08 to 2.01 units/ha), and expansion of rural residential land use increased structure loss probability in the future. Regardless of future climate scenario, large fire probability was only projected to increase in the northern and interior parts of the state, whereas climate change had no projected impact on fire probability in southern California. Given the variation in fire-climate relationships and land use effects, policy and management decision-making should be customized for specific geographical regions.  相似文献   

Interplay between an axial channel belt,slope gullies and overbank deposition in the Puchkirchen Formation in the Molasse Basin,Austria          下载免费PDF全文

Larisa U. Masalimova  Donald R. Lowe  Timothy Mchargue  Richard Derksen 《Sedimentology》2015,62(6):1717-1748

Deep‐water sediments in the Molasse Basin, Austria, were deposited in a narrow foreland basin dominated by a large channel belt located between the steep Alpine fold and thrust belt to the south and the gentler northern slope off the Bohemian Massif. Several gas fields occur outside the channel belt, along the outer bend of a large meander. Accumulation of these overbank sediments reflects a complicated interplay between slope accommodation and debris‐flow and turbidity‐flow interaction within the channel. The tectonically oversteepened northern slope of the basin (ca 2 to 3°) developed a regionally important erosional surface, the Northern Slope Unconformity, which can be traced seismically for >100 km in an east–west direction and >20 km from the channel to the north. The slope preserves numerous gullies sourced from the north that eroded into the channel belt. These gullies were ca 20 km long, <1 km wide and ca 200 m deep. As the channel aggraded, largely inactive and empty gullies served as entry points into the overbank area for turbidity currents within the axial channel. Subsequently, debris‐flow mounds, 7 km wide and >15 km long, plugged and forced the main channel to step abruptly ca 7 km to the south. This resulted in development of an abrupt turn in the channel pathway that propagated to the east and probably played a role in forming a sinuous channel later. As debris‐flow topography was healed, flows spread out onto narrow area between the main channel and northern slope forming a broad fine‐grained apron that serves as the main gas reservoir in this area. This model of the overbank splay formation and the resulting stratigraphic architecture within the confined basin could be applied in modern and ancient systems or for subsurface hydrocarbon reservoirs where three‐dimensional seismic‐reflection data is limited. This study elucidates the geomorphology of the oversteepened slope of the under‐riding plate and its effects on the sedimentation.  相似文献   

优化网格法在小面积区域雷暴特征分析中的应用     

石湘波  张其林  丁烨毅  邵程远  周溥佳 《气象科学》2015,35(3):334-339

为满足小面积区域(10 000 km²左右)雷电防御工作准确化、精细化的要求, 选取人工观测半径用以优化1 km×1 km网格的雷电参数。实例分析表明:优化网格法可以修正1 km×1 km相邻网格的年平均地闪密度值的大幅波动, 避免相邻网格突变值的出现。也可以使1 km×1 km网格的雷电日更符合气象意义。并可以准确分析用于表征区域强雷暴分布的平均单位雷电日地闪密度和最大单位雷电日地闪密度等雷电参数。  相似文献   

地面自动气象观测设备运行状态信息检测技术   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李雁  周青  李峰  周薇  徐鸣一  梁海河 《气象科技》2015,43(6):1030-1039

地面自动气象观测设备运行状态检测机制不足一直是困扰我国地面气象观测运行保障工作的一大难题。本研究从运行监控实际业务需求角度出发,在梳理现有业务运行地面自动气象观测设备结构基础上,结合部分研究成果,从数据采集模块、气压观测模块、温湿度观测模块、风观测模块、地温观测模块、雨量观测模块、供电系统模块、软件模块、能见度观测模块和称重降水观测模块共10个方面逐一细化了每一主要部件的状态检测点,并对其进行了分类和编码,同时参考现行业务运行设备长Z数据报文,制定了地面自动气象观测设备运行状态报文规范,最终研制了地面自动气象观测设备运行状态信息检测技术。通过统一规范、标准,研究结果可解决目前我国地面自动气象观测设备监控信息设计规范缺失的问题,可缓解当前厂家多、型号杂、设备不统一的不利局面,有利于推进地面自动气象观测设备运行监控技术规范化建设工作。  相似文献   

高密度电法在某公路路基下隐伏岩溶探测中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

密士文  王翔  周厚侠 《山东国土资源》2015,31(1):62-64

灰岩分布区易发生岩溶塌陷等地质灾害,高密度电阻率法是岩溶地质调查的重要手段。以某一段穿越岩溶发育区的公路为例,应用高密度电法对区内暗河、槽谷型岩溶塘、落水洞等灾害地质体进行了探测,结果显示拟建路段覆盖层厚度大约为2~20 m,基岩内岩溶极发育,岩石地表起伏大,溶沟、溶槽、岩溶塌陷、落水洞发育;岩石中溶蚀裂隙、溶洞发育。表明高密度电阻率法能够有效地判定岩溶的发育情况,可以为地质灾害评估提供科学客观的依据。  相似文献   

一种CORS站高程序列噪声识别算法     

吉长东  吕广涵  张恒璟  崔东东 《测绘科学》2021,46(3):8-16

针对能量密度谱判断噪声与信号主导模态分界点性能不稳定的问题,该文提出基于夹角余弦的分界点判断方法。该方法首先利用EEMD对CORS站高程数据进行分解,其次计算原始信号与各阶模态分量的夹角余弦值,最后根据夹角余弦值的首次逆向转折位置判定噪声主导模态和信号主导模态的分界点。以4个CORS基准站近20年原始高程时间序列信号为研究对象,对噪声与信号模态分量分界点进行判定,实验结果表明采用基于夹角余弦的判定方法可以一次判断出噪声和信号模态分量的分界点。该方法应用到CORS站高程信号与噪声序列的识别中性能更加稳定。  相似文献   

复杂地势下轻小型无人机LiDAR自主航线设计     

陈玥  李英成  李兵  刘晓龙 《测绘科学》2021,46(3):104-109,132

针对现有的LiDAR航线设计软件绝大多数针对大中型无人机,主要依靠飞行人员根据实际经验敷设航线,少数采用传统摄影测量改变基线长度的方式实现复杂地势下LiDAR航线自动敷设,但高地势地区航线较密,飞行成本高,有局限性,目前能实现轻小型无人机载LiDAR航线自主敷设的软件很少等问题,参照轻小型机载LiDAR的特点,该文提出一种复杂地势下基于DEM改变航高的航线设计方法。以延庆某山区进行试验。结果表明:该方法适当放宽分区高差限制,综合考虑地形信息、飞机性能等要素,使得单条航带点云密度得到保证,提高航线规划效率,节约飞行时间。将考虑DEM与未考虑DEM两种方式对比,确保重叠度,满足工程点云密度,便于后期数据处理。  相似文献   

超高密度电阻率法在岩溶及破碎带探测中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

胡树林  陈烜  帅恩华 《物探与化探》2011,35(6):821-824

结合工程实例,介绍了超高密度电阻率法在勘探岩溶及破碎带中的应用,总结了数据采集过程中的注意事项,并将成果与钻孔资料作了对比分析。结果表明,该方法在岩溶及破碎带的分布位置、大小、埋藏深度及发育情况等方面的勘察上都取得了较好的效果,是一种能有效提高工程勘察精度的物探方法。  相似文献   

转换横波阻抗的求取     

孙歧峰  白清云 《物探与化探》2011,35(1):93-96

 随着我国陆上石油勘探程度的不断提高,单纯利用纵波信息已经很难再满足当前油气勘探的要求。笔者借鉴纵波阻抗的推导过程,对转换横波阻抗的公式进行了详细的推导,分析了转换横波阻抗公式中的关键参数,并通过转换横波阻抗以求取岩石密度,而由密度参数求取的含气饱和度可以指示储层的含气性。  相似文献   

高密度采集地震资料对缝洞型储层预测精度的影响分析     

王雪梅  章雄  杨晓  张琳  文向东  管敏 《物探化探计算技术》2011,33(6):642-648,574,575

四川盆地蜀南地区下二叠统茅口组缝洞型储层具有强烈的非均质性特征,而且埋藏相对较深,信噪比和分辨率较低,地震预测的难度大。这里通过模型正演,分析不同道距二维地震资料对茅口组单缝洞体储层的分辨能力,并且在资料处理中,研究了高密度地震资料对抑制空间假频,以及提高横向分辨率的影响,最后通过实际资料对比和速度反演,进一步分析证实了高密度采集地震资料,能够有效提高缝洞型储层的预测精度。  相似文献